DeepSeek: Chinese "Unrestricted Warfare" Psyop?
"Unrestricted Warfare" is a book published by two Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, in 1999. The text became notable for its advocacy of non-traditional warfare strategies that China could use to counter the superior military technology of the United States.
Here's a short summary:
Concept: The book argues that traditional military warfare is becoming less relevant in the modern era. Instead, it proposes "unrestricted warfare," where conflict transcends conventional military boundaries, employing all means at a nation's disposal, including economic, financial, cyber, legal, and psychological warfare.
Examples: It discusses using methods like manipulating financial markets, attacking digital infrastructure, spreading propaganda, and leveraging international law to weaken an opponent without direct military engagement. The authors suggest that these methods can be more cost-effective and less risky than conventional warfare.
Globalization and Technology: They highlight how globalization has made countries more interdependent, creating new vulnerabilities that can be exploited. The internet and global financial systems are seen as battlefields where wars can be waged without tanks or aircraft.
Implications: For China, this means avoiding direct confrontation with stronger military powers like the U.S. by using asymmetric strategies. It also suggests that in the future, warfare would be more about outsmarting rather than overpowering the enemy.
I asked Grok to write something on the following potentially “fake” themes and how the Unrestricted Warfare military strategy could apply:
Here's a summary of the ways in which DeepSeek has been speculated to be either a psyop or fake:
Lying About Cost: There's skepticism regarding the claimed $5.5 million cost of training their model, with suggestions that this figure might exclude significant operational expenses, suggesting it's an underrepresentation to appear more cost-effective than it actually is. This could be a strategy to lure users and companies away from more expensive American counterparts.
Lying About Equipment: Doubts have been raised about the quality and quantity of the hardware DeepSeek used, particularly with claims of using lower-quality chips under U.S. export restrictions. Speculation exists that they might have access to superior chips covertly or are exaggerating their capabilities with less powerful hardware.
Attack on Export Controls: Some view DeepSeek's success as an unintended consequence of U.S. export controls on advanced chips, suggesting it might be a demonstration of China's ability to innovate around these restrictions, thereby undermining the effectiveness of such controls. This could be seen as a strategic move to show that U.S. restrictions do not significantly hinder Chinese tech advancement.
Attack on U.S. Economy: There's a theory that DeepSeek's open-source and low-cost model is an economic warfare tactic, akin to concepts from "Unrestricted Warfare," a book by Chinese colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. This approach might aim to disrupt the U.S. AI sector by providing an alternative that makes existing, more expensive American models less competitive. The idea is to flood the market with a viable, cheaper option, thereby damaging the economic viability of U.S. AI companies.
These speculations tie into broader narratives about international tech competition, where DeepSeek's achievements are seen through the lens of geopolitical strategy rather than just technological innovation. However, these claims are largely speculative and based on the perception of DeepSeek's actions and statements rather than concrete evidence of malicious intent or deceit.
Applying the concepts from "Unrestricted Warfare" to the DeepSeek drama involves considering how this situation might be viewed through the lens of non-traditional warfare tactics described in the book:
Technological Warfare: DeepSeek could be seen as an example of China leveraging technology in a form of unrestricted warfare. By developing and promoting an AI model that is open-source and purportedly low-cost, China might be attempting to undermine the U.S. tech sector's dominance in AI. This aligns with the book's idea of using technology and innovation as weapons in a broader strategic competition.
Economic Warfare: The narrative around DeepSeek's claimed low development costs could be interpreted as an economic attack. By showcasing a competitive product that seems to bypass the high costs associated with American AI development, DeepSeek might aim to disrupt the market, thereby weakening the economic position of U.S. tech companies. This fits into the book's notion of using economic means to achieve military or strategic objectives.
Psychological and Information Warfare: The controversy around whether DeepSeek is a psyop or fake could itself be part of a psychological operation. By sowing doubt, confusion, or overconfidence about Chinese technological capabilities, it might force Western companies and governments to either overestimate or underestimate China's tech prowess, leading to strategic missteps. This mirrors the book's advocacy for using information to manipulate the opponent's decision-making process.
Cyber and Legal Warfare: If DeepSeek were to be involved in or accused of circumventing U.S. export controls (like using restricted chips), this would be an example of both cyber warfare (by potentially hacking or smuggling technology) and legal warfare (using or bending international trade laws to one's advantage).
Asymmetric Strategy: The essence of "Unrestricted Warfare" is to engage in conflicts where one's strengths are maximized against an opponent's vulnerabilities. DeepSeek's approach could be seen as exploiting the U.S.'s reliance on high-cost, high-tech solutions by providing an alternative that appears more accessible and less resource-intensive, thus playing to China's advantage in a long-term strategic contest.
Global Narrative Shaping: By engaging in such activities, China might be attempting to reshape the global narrative around tech innovation, positioning itself as a leader in AI while potentially tarnishing the image of U.S. tech as overly expensive or elitist. This aligns with the book's emphasis on controlling the narrative as part of warfare.
In this context, the DeepSeek situation might not just be about tech innovation but could be interpreted as a multi-faceted strategic move in line with the principles laid out in "Unrestricted Warfare," where every aspect of national power is mobilized towards outmaneuvering opponents in ways that traditional military might cannot. However, these interpretations are speculative and based on the strategic concepts from the book rather than direct evidence of intent from DeepSeek or the Chinese government.