"The power up baskets are going power down."

GS Basics - DeepSeek/Columbian Trade Implications

Here is the important part about AI/Power Up. (esp what I bolded)

“Markets sharply lower driven by tech. DeepSeek is something we are going to be talking about a lot this week and especially ahead of Mag 7 earnings where the focus will be on upcoming AI related capex outlays. What makes DeepSeek important is not necessarily that it’s Chinese or rapidly ascended to one of the most popular downloads in the Apple App Store but that it appears quite a fundamental advancement in the efficiency of AI technology. For a lot of complicated reasons it’s basically a huge upgrade to effectiveness of inference. By some measurements, 40-50x more efficient than other models. If you can do more with less it naturally leads the question to whether you need so much capacity. Obviously this will be a huge area of debate and I am far from an expert the nuances of semiconductor equipment or AI data layer inference...but given the immense amount of market cap added on this thematic I think we hit hard
in reverse in the tends of last week. The power up baskets are going power down. Semis/ai/tech are going to be under pressure today. Think maybe now we understand why NVDA has been de-rating to the extent it has.”

I entered a small amount of some of these names last week and will be buying once I think a bottom has been found, not selling into this.

On Trade and Colombia:

“A few implications 1.) seems clear that rather than doing blanket tariffs this targeted approach allows the new administration to accomplish key policy objectives (I’d argue it means the end state for trade is going to be highly specified/targeted and ultimately probably lower in magnitude than my initial assumptions) 2.) it creates for a large degree of trade uncertainty and in a rather perpetual format, every disagreement is a potential trade based outcome now. So expect to live with this uncertainty for the next 4 years every time there is an element of multinational disagreement.”